The country's economy comes back on the track amid disappointment and hope
Corona effect: Estimates of the huge decline in the GDP in the current financial year
SEP 16 (WTN) - You must have guessed how much economic damage has been caused to the entire world due to the Coronavirus infection disease (COVID-19) ? As far as India is concerned, the Indian Government imposed a long lockdown to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus infection. At the same time, since it is natural that 99 percent of the country's economic activities were completely stopped due to the lockdown. And for this reason, India's GDP recorded a steep decline of 23.9 percent in the first quarter of the current financial year 2020-21.
At the same time, mills and factories were closed for a long time due to the lockdown. At the same time, the service sector was also affected due to the closure of the office. Here, due to the lockdown, many people in both organized and unorganized sectors of the country suffered from unemployment. At the same time, the Indian Railways suffered losses due to the stoppage of passenger trains, but the burden of paying salaries to the millions of railway employees fell on the Indian Government.
However, now, the economic activity in the country has gained momentum, and the country is going out of lockdown. But, it will still take time for the economic activities of the country to get on the track properly, and its effect is going to be on the country's GDP. Many rating agencies, including the RBI, have expressed fears of a steep decline in the GDP in the current fiscal year of the country.
In this context, now, ADB (Asian Development Bank) has estimated about the GDP of India's current financial year 2020-21. The ADB estimates that the Indian economy may decline by about 9 percent in this financial year. For your information, let you know that according to many rating agencies before this, India's GDP may fall by 9 to 15 percent in the current financial year.
Explain that the Asian Development Scenario (ADO) -2020 update released by the ADB has said about the economy of India, "COVID-19 has severely affected the economic activities in India, and due to this, India's GDP may decline by 9 percent in the current finance year." However, the ADB estimates that the Indian economy will perform well in the next financial year 2021-22. The ADB believes that India's GDP is projected to grow by 8 percent in the next financial year, with business activities returning to track.
Let's talk about other estimates about India's GDP, so as per rating agency Fitch's estimate, COVID-19 could cause India's GDP to fall by about 10.5 percent in the FY 2020-21. At the same time, according to rating agency CRISIL, India's GDP may fall by 9 percent in the current financial year 2020-21. At the same time, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs, India's GDP may fall by 14.8 percent in the current financial year 2020-21. Here, India Rating & Research (Ind-Ra) has projected India's GDP to fall by around 11.8 percent in the current financial year 2020-21.
Anyway, India's economy is now slowly coming out of a difficult phase of the lockdown. But, if India needs to improve the economy, the Modi Government will have to increase its ability to survive, fight, and cure against the COVID-19. The better and soon India will be able to protect and free itself from the effects of COVID-19, and then in the same proportion, India's GDP growth rate can be expected to rise further.